the debt ceiling debate, presidential report card and quiet market rally. what does it mean for you money? joining us right now, jared bernstein, center on budget and policy priorities and chief economist vice e president bibiden. also with us, russ koesterich. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, maria. >> russ, let me kick it up with you. a pretty good rally. on thursday the s&p 500 hitting yet another five-year high. is this rally for real? do you think it's sustainable going forward as we continue through this earnings period? >> i think in the short term, it is. i think we're probably going to hit a road bump in february. the reason i say that is we've got a lot of flows coming into the market early in the year. people were nervous in december. th're coming back in to stocks. that's a good thing over the longer term. we do have some issues coming up. the debt ceiling obviously one of them. the second question is we start to get the economic data. how big of a hit from the tax increaseses, payroll tax holiday, and what do those numbers which may be a bit o